Insights
Our views, one series at a time
4Q 2026
The Breakpoint
A three-part series on what happens in private credit when the borrower stops paying.
Part 1 is open to all. Subscribe to read Parts 2 and 3.
Part 1 - October 2026
The Day the Borrower Stops Paying
Private credit money keeps flowing to the largest funds, and to win big loans they’ve given up price and covenants. Part 1 looks at what that costs a lender when the borrower stops paying, and why real estate holds up better without being immune.
Part 2 - November 2026
Where the Capital Isn’t
The largest real estate lenders face the same pressure to deploy, and it pushes them toward the biggest loans. Part 2 looks at the $5 to $50 million loans left behind just as $875 billion of commercial mortgages come due in 2026, and asks why the capital doesn’t follow the opportunity.
Part 3 - December 2026
Where Is the Breakpoint?
Parts 1 and 2 show lenders giving up price and protection to put money to work. Part 3 names the point where that starts, and what it takes for a lender to stay on the right side of it.
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